7 Day Forecast

Weather Discussion

Updated on Sunday, 16 February 2020 at 5:29 PM EST:

TONIGHT: A stray rain shower and snow shower possible during the early evening. Areas of fog likely during the late evening and overnight. Otherwise; mostly cloudy skies during the early evening will give way to mostly clear skies during the late evening and overnight. Lows around 22°. Northwest winds around 5 mph during the early evening, becoming calm during the late evening and overnight.

MONDAY: A stray rain shower possible during the late afternoon. Areas of fog likely during the early morning. Otherwise; mostly clear skies during the early morning will give way to partly cloudy skies during the late morning and early afternoon, and then mostly cloudy skies during the late afternoon. Highs around 51°. Calm winds during the early morning, becoming southeast at 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible during the late morning and afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: A stray rain shower possible during the early evening, and then scattered rain showers possible during the late evening, and then widespread rain showers likely during the overnight. Otherwise; mostly cloudy skies during the early evening will give way to cloudy skies during the late evening and overnight. Lows around 41° during the evening, rising to 45° during the overnight. Southeast winds at 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible during the early evening, becoming south at 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible during the late evening and overnight, becoming southwest at 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible towards sunrise. New rainfall amounts around a half inch possible.

TUESDAY: Widespread rain showers likely during the early morning, and then scattered rain showers possible during the late morning, and then isolated rain showers possible during the early afternoon, and then a stray rain shower and snow shower possible during the late afternoon. Otherwise; cloudy skies during the morning will give way to mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon. Highs around 53° during the early afternoon, dropping to 42° during the late afternoon. Southwest winds at 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible during the early morning, becoming west at 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible during the late morning and afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: A stray rain shower and snow shower possible during the early evening. Otherwise; mostly cloudy skies throughout the evening and overnight. Lows around 25°. West winds at 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible during the early evening, becoming northwest at 5-15 mph during the late evening and overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy skies during the morning will give way to partly cloudy skies during the afternoon. Highs around 43°.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 22°.

THURSDAY: Slight chance of snow showers. Highs around 36°.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 18°.

FRIDAY: Mostly clear. Highs around 40°.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 20°.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 48°.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 32°.

SUNDAY: Slight chance of rain showers. Highs around 52°.

DISCUSSION:

On the latest weather map, a weakening cold front is making its way into northern Ohio as an extension of the high pressure over the Great Lakes also moves into portions of Ohio.

As we go through tonight, the extension of the high pressure will help to keep things fairly quiet. A stray rain shower and quick snow flurry will be possible over the next couple of hours, but recent surface observations further off in Western and Northwestern Ohio shows that the clouds are decreasing. Once these clouds decrease in our area, so too will the possibility of any quick precipitation showers.

The cold front weakening this evening will then blend itself in with a warm front moving up the Mississippi River Valley, likely to be extended from Kansas all the way over to parts of Kentucky by sunrise Monday Morning. Given this, a low level temperature inversion looks likely for tonight as surface temperatures will fall, but the low level temperatures may be just a few degrees warmer. With this inversion in place, combined with the still present snow cover just off to our north, fog is looking likely in our area, especially north of I-70 overnight tonight and into early Monday Morning.

A low pressure developing in Nebraska this evening will then begin to makes it’s way into Iowa during the day Monday. This will cause the warm front to approach our region, but likely it will not pass through until Monday Night. Ahead of the warm front, I am expecting that southeasterly winds will increase during the day, as will the cloud cover. Despite the clouds, I think the southerly breeze will be enough to mix the air enough that we should be seeing high temperatures in the lower-50s in Zanesville and south of I-70. Places up around Coshocton and New Philadelphia, however, may only see highs in the upper-40s. A stray rain shower will be possible by the late afternoon hours on Monday as low level moisture increases as the warm front approaches.

On Monday Night, the low pressure will move into Chicago, IL metro, and the warm front will jump over our region. This will allow for falling temperatures during the early evening to begin to rise during the overnight. Rain will also begin to make it’s way into our region, especially after midnight. However, this is a fast moving system, and the cold front will quickly move through the lower Great Lakes Region on Monday Night, and should be entering our region sometime during the mid-morning to early afternoon. Once this front passes through, most of the rain in our area will move out. A few lingering rain showers – and perhaps a snow shower – will be possible on the backside as a very weak vorticity maximum moves through central Ohio. Nonetheless, this will set the stage for a large area of high pressure to move into our region.

Wednesday is looking to be generally quiet as an extension off the large high pressure in North Dakota moves through our region. This little ridge will last about 12 hours and then will begin to collapse. An upper level trough is scheduled to move through sometime late Wednesday Night and early Thursday Morning. With this will come the possibility for a quick snow shower. Afterwards, the large surface high pressure with a possible maximum pressure above 1040 mb will spread out across a large portion of the Continental United States and southern Canada.

This will likely keep our temperatures down around average for this time of the year through the end of the work week, but upper level ridging appears ready to set up which will then help our temperatures to warm up as a southerly breeze looks favorable during this time frame.

For now, I am keeping temperature fluctuations around 20° for the last few days of the 7 day forecast. I do believe that the air will be fairly dry, and given the fact that the sun angle is a little bit higher this time compared to earlier in the month, we could be seeing temperatures get close to 50° as we head into the weekend while lows may still drop down into the 20s.

In addition, a weak trough appears on some of the long range guidance models, and for this reason I have included a slight chance of rain showers (a 10% precipitation coverage probability) in the forecast for Sunday. Despite this trough arriving, mid and low level moisture appears to be a little low just given the fact that the large area of high pressure will have been with us for a few days.

That’s your weather!

-Timmy

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